Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Consumer Confidence IndexR | The Conference Board from Steve Reilly

The consumer confidence index which is gtracked by the Conference Board
dropped sharply in August and remained unchanged in September.

The index is 45.4 with 1995 100.

This is not good news. People are not likely to spend money when they aren't
confident about the future.

If you want to see the details copy the following link into your browser.

https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

Regards, Steve

Steve Reilly
Higgins Group
Best Practice Real Estate
203-246-7373
Swreilly@swreilly.com
Www.Swreilly.com

Case Shiller median price of pre homes sold from Steve Reilly

Case Shiller reported this week that the median price of existing homes sold showed an increase in most markets in July for fourth consecutive month.

But, are less than last year.

Top 10 markets were up .9% from last month and down 3.7% from last year

Top 20 markets were up .9% from last month and down 4.1% from last year

Boston market was .8% from last month and down 1.9% from last year

New York market was up 1.1% from last month and down 3.7% from last year

If you want to see the details copy this link into your browser.

http://www.standardandpoors.com/servlet/BlobServer?blobheadername3=MDT-Type&a...

Regards, Steve

Steve Reilly

Higgins Group

Best Practice Real Estate

203-246-7373

Swreilly@swreilly.com

Www.Swreilly.com

Friday, September 23, 2011

Westport and surrounding towns real estate market performance through August, 2011 from Steve Reillys

Summary Real Estate Market Performance

Through August, 2011 vs. 2010

 

 

The National Association of Realtors reported this

Week that sales of pre owned homes was up 7.7%

in August, 2011 vs. July. This increase was due to the

large number of repossessions and resulting lower

median selling price.

For Westport, sales were up 5% but not due to

Repossessions and the median selling price was

up 8%.

For surrounding towns, sales were down but median

selling price was up.

For Westport, the trend is mostly positive with both

sales and prices increasing.

For surrounding towns, the trend is not so positive.

Sales are down and prices are up.

Summary Westport Real Estate Market Performance

through August, 2011

 

Median selling price was up 8% in 2011 vs. 2010 and down

20% since the peak in 2008.

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Westport Properties sold through August, 2011

Properties sold through June 2011 was up 5% since

same period 2010 and down 16% since peak in 2007.

Image011

Westport Average days on market through August, 2011

The Average Days on Market was up 5% in 2011 vs. 2010

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Summary Surrounding Towns (Norwalk, Wilton, Weston,

Fairfiled, Easton, Ridgefield aand Redding) Real Estate

Market Performance through August, 2011

Median selling Price through August, 2011

Median selling price was up 16% in 2011 vs. 2010 and down

1% since peak in 2007.

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Properties sold through August, 2011

Properties sold through June, 2011 was down 11%

since 2010 and down 38% since peak in 2007.

Image015

Average days on market through August, 2011

The Average Days on Market was up 8% in 2011 vs.

2010 and up 24% since 2007.

Image016

Inventory of Properties for Sale in Westport

The number of houses and condos for sale as of

September 21, 2011 was down 3.4% vs. last month and

down 5.5% since last year.

Image017

Inventory of Properties for Sale in

surrounding towns

 

The number of houses and condos for sale as of

September 21, 2011 was down 2% vs. last month and about

The same as last year.

Image018

See the following sites for real estate information

or call any time.

www.swreilly.com

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Regards,

Image012

Stephen Reilly

Higgins Group

Best Practice Real Estate

278 Post Road East

Westport, CT 06880

203-246-7372

swreilly@swreilly.com

www.westport-homestore.com

licensed in Connecticut

Wall Street Journal reported on Wed 9/21/2011 Housing forecast call for pain


Subject: Fwd: Wall Street Journal reported on Wed 9/21/2011 Housing forecast call for pain

A summary of the article includes:

Recovery of housing market and recovery of the economy are dependent on each other

Housing market won’t recover any time soon

Prices have fallen 31.6 % since peak in 2005

Prices will recover only a fraction of loss in next 10 years leaving low equity

The large number of repossessions is driving prices down

Lower consumer spending people feel poorer, less moving activity, improvements with cash vs home equity loans, less improvements, 

Government programs for credits and refinancing haven't worked and may have made things worse. For example, It can't help that the justice department is suing banks for selling improperly vetted mortgages to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

No wonder the consumer confidence is so low.

Steve Reilly

Higgins Group

Best Practice Real Estate

203-246-7373


Home Forecast Calls for Pain

Prices to Stumble Through 2015, Economists Say, Weighing Down Recovery

·          

 

BY NICK TIMIRAOS

Economists, builders and mortgage analysts are predicting the weakened U.S. economy will depress housing prices for years, restraining consumer spending, pushing more homeowners into foreclosure and clouding prospects for a sustained recovery.

Home prices are expected to drop 2.5% this year and rise just 1.1% annually through 2015, according to a recent survey of more than 100 economists to be released Wednesday. Prices have already fallen 31.6% from their 2005 peak, as measured by the Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller 20-city index.

If the economists' forecast is accurate, it means housing faces a lost decade in which home prices recover just ...

 

consumer confidence index declines big time

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® Declines

30 Aug. 2011

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved slightly in July, plummeted in August. The Index now stands at 44.5 (1985=100), down from 59.2 in July. The Present Situation Index decreased to 33.3 from 35.7. The Expectations Index decreased to 51.9 from 74.9 last month.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by The Nielsen Company, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was August 18th.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "Consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in August, as consumers grew significantly more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. The index is now at its lowest level in more than two years (April 2009, 40.8). A contributing factor may have been the debt ceiling discussions since the decline in confidence was well underway before the S&P downgrade. Consumers' assessment of current conditions, on the other hand, posted only a modest decline as employment conditions continue to suppress confidence."

Consumers' appraisal of present-day conditions weakened further in August. Consumers claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 40.6 percent from 38.7 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "good" inched up to 13.7 percent from 13.5 percent. Consumers' assessment of employment conditions was more pessimistic than last month. Those claiming jobs are "hard to get" increased to 49.1 percent from 44.8 percent, while those stating jobs are "plentiful" declined to 4.7 percent from 5.1 percent.

Consumers' short-term outlook deteriorated sharply in August. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased to 11.8 percent from 17.9 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen surged to 24.6 percent from 16.1 percent. Consumers were also more pessimistic about the outlook for the job market. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 11.4 percent from 16.9 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs increased to 31.5 percent from 22.2 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes declined to 14.3 percent from 15.9 percent.

The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, September 27, at 10:00 AM ET.

For further information contact:

Carol Courter
at +1 212 339 0232
carol.courter@conference-board.org

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Misleading headline about increased home sales in August

The following headline doesn’t explain that the increase in sales is due to a high level of investors buying properties at bargain prices and that the median selling price is down.

Tomorrow I will explain what’s going on in Westport and surrounding towns.

August Existing-Home Sales Leap Despite Headwinds

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2011

Existing-home sales increased in August, even with ongoing tight credit and appraisal problems, along with regional disruptions created by Hurricane Irene, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Monthly gains were seen in all regions.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 7.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million in August from an upwardly revised 4.67 million in July, and are 18.6 percent higher than the 4.24 million unit level in August 2010.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there are some positive market fundamentals. “Some of the improvement in August may result from sales that were delayed in preceding months, but favorable affordability conditions and rising rents are underlying motivations,” he said. “Investors were more active in absorbing foreclosed properties. In additional to bargain hunting, some investors are in the market to hedge against higher inflation.”

Investors accounted for 22 percent of purchase activity in August, up from 18 percent in July and 21 percent in August 2010. First-time buyers purchased 32 percent of homes in August, unchanged from July; they were 31 percent in August 2010.

All-cash sales accounted for 29 percent of transactions in August, unchanged from July; they were 28 percent in August 2010; investors account for the bulk of cash purchases.

“We had some disruptions from Hurricane Irene in the closing weekend of August, when many sales normally are finalized, along the Eastern seaboard and in New England,” Yun said. “As a result, the Northeast saw the smallest sales gain in August, and some general impact is expected in September with widespread flooding from Tropical Storm Lee. Aberrations in housing data are possible over the next couple months as markets recover from disrupted closings and storm damage.”

Yun said an extremely important issue currently is the renewal and availability of the National Flood Insurance Program, scheduled to expire at the end of this month. “About one out of 10 homes in this country need flood insurance to get a mortgage, and we would see significant negative market impacts without it,” he said.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.27 percent in August, down from 4.55 percent in July; the rate was 4.43 percent in August 2010. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate fell to a record low 4.09 percent.

NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said the market is remarkably affordable for people with secure jobs, good credit and long-term plans. “All year, the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income has been hovering at historic highs, meaning the best housing affordability conditions in a generation,” he said.

“The biggest factors keeping home sales from a healthy recovery are mortgages being denied to creditworthy buyers, and appraised valuations below the negotiated price. Buyers may be able to find more favorable credit terms with community and small regional banks, and Realtors® can often give buyers advice to help them overcome some of the financing obstacles,” Phipps said.

Contract failures – cancellations caused largely by declined mortgage applications or failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price – were reported by 18 percent of NAR members in August, up from 16 percent July and 9 percent in August 2010.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $168,300 in August, which is 5.1 percent below August 2010. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales typically sold at deep discounts – accounted for 31 percent of sales in August, compared with 29 percent in July and 34 percent in August 2010.

Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 3.0 percent to 3.58 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.5-month supply in July.

Single-family home sales rose 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.47 million in August from 4.12 million in July, and are 20.2 percent above the 3.72 million pace in August 2010.

The median existing single-family home price was $168,400 in August, which is 5.4 percent below a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales increased 1.8 percent a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000 in August from 550,000 in July, and are 8.3 percent higher than the 517,000-unit level one year ago. The median existing condo price was $167,500 in August, down 3.3 percent from August 2010.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 2.7 percent to an annual pace of 770,000 in August and are 10.0 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $244,100, which is 5.1 percent below August 2010.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 3.8 percent in August to a level of 1.09 million and are 26.7 percent above August 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $141,700, down 3.5 percent from a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 5.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.94 million in August and are 16.9 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $151,000, which is 0.8 percent below August 2010.

Existing-home sales in the West jumped 18.3 percent to an annual pace of 1.23 million in August and are 20.6 percent higher than August 2010. The median price in the West was $189,400, down 13.0 percent from a year ago.

Source: NAR